ADAF: An Artificial Intelligence Data Assimilation Framework for Weather Forecasting

TL;DR

This paper introduces ADAF, an AI-based data assimilation framework that improves weather forecast accuracy and efficiency by effectively integrating diverse observational data with low computational cost.

Contribution

The study presents the first real-world application of AI for data assimilation in weather forecasting, outperforming traditional methods in accuracy and computational efficiency.

Findings

ADAF surpasses HRRRDAS accuracy by 16-33% for near-surface variables.

ADAF effectively reconstructs extreme weather events like tropical cyclones.

ADAF processes massive observational data within three hours using minimal computational resources.

Abstract

The forecasting skill of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models critically depends on the accurate initial conditions, also known as analysis, provided by data assimilation (DA). Traditional DA methods often face a trade-off between computational cost and accuracy due to complex linear algebra computations and the high dimensionality of the model, especially in nonlinear systems. Moreover, processing massive data in real-time requires substantial computational resources. To address this, we introduce an artificial intelligence-based data assimilation framework (ADAF) to generate high-quality kilometer-scale analysis. This study is the pioneering work using real-world observations from varied locations and multiple sources to verify the AI method's efficacy in DA, including sparse surface weather observations and satellite imagery. We implemented ADAF for four near-surface variables in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). The results indicate that ADAF surpasses the High Resolution Rapid Refresh Data Assimilation System (HRRRDAS) in accuracy by 16% to 33% for near-surface atmospheric conditions, aligning more closely with actual observations, and can effectively reconstruct extreme events, such as tropical cyclone wind fields. Sensitivity experiments reveal that ADAF can generate high-quality analysis even with low-accuracy backgrounds and extremely sparse surface observations. ADAF can assimilate massive observations within a three-hour window at low computational cost, taking about two seconds on an AMD MI200 graphics processing unit (GPU). ADAF has been shown to be efficient and effective in real-world DA, underscoring its potential role in operational weather forecasting.