Interval-Valued Fuzzy Fault Tree Analysis through Qualitative Data Processing and its Applications in Marine Operations

TL;DR

This paper introduces a qualitative fuzzy fault tree analysis method using expert judgments and aggregation techniques to assess and prioritize risks in marine operations, especially when quantitative data is lacking.

Contribution

It develops an interval-valued fuzzy fault tree approach with a novel aggregation and weighting scheme for expert opinions in complex marine safety systems.

Findings

Effective identification of critical failure events in marine scenarios

Successful application to chemical cargo contamination case study

Validated approach for risk assessment without quantitative data

Abstract

Marine accidents highlight the crucial need for human safety. They result in loss of life, environmental harm, and significant economic costs, emphasizing the importance of being proactive and taking precautionary steps. This study aims to identify the root causes of accidents, to develop effective strategies for preventing them. Due to the lack of accurate quantitative data or reliable probability information, we employ qualitative approaches to assess the reliability of complex systems. We collect expert judgments regarding the failure likelihood of each basic event and aggregate those opinions using the Similarity-based Aggregation Method (SAM) to form a collective assessment. In SAM, we convert expert opinions into failure probability using interval-valued triangular fuzzy numbers. Since each expert possesses different knowledge and various levels of experience, we need to assign weights to their opinions to reflect their relative expertise. We employ the Best-Worst Method (BWM) to calculate the weights of each criterion, and then use the weighting scores to determine the weights of each expert. Ranking of basic events according to their criticality is a crucial step, and in this study, we use the FVI measure to prioritize and rank these events according to their criticality level. To demonstrate the effectiveness and validity of our proposed methodology, we apply our method to two case studies: (1) chemical cargo contamination, and (2) the loss of ship steering ability. These case studies serve as examples to illustrate the practicality and utility of our approach in evaluating criticality and assessing risk in complex systems.