Forecasting the Price of Rice in Banda Aceh after Covid-19

TL;DR

This study forecasts rice prices in Banda Aceh post-Covid-19 using auto-ARIMA models, addressing missing data with LOCF, and finds prices declined temporarily before stabilizing.

Contribution

It applies auto-ARIMA with LOCF imputation to forecast rice prices after Covid-19, identifying the best model for multiple rice qualities.

Findings

ARIMA (0,0,5) is the best model for all rice qualities.

Prices declined briefly in early September 2023.

Prices stabilized from September 6, 2023, to December 31, 2023.

Abstract

This research aims to predict the price of rice in Banda Aceh after the occurrence of Covid-19. The last observation carried forward (LOCF) imputation technique has been used to solve the problem of missing values from this research data. Furthermore, the technique used to forecast rice prices in Banda Aceh is auto-ARIMA which is the best ARIMA model based on AIC, AICC, or BIC values. The results of this research show that the ARIMA model (0,0,5) is the best model to predict the prices of lower quality rice I (BKB1), lower quality rice II (BKB2), medium quality rice I (BKM1), medium quality rice II (BKM2), super quality rice I (BKS1), and super quality rice II (BKS2). Based on this model, the results of forecasting rice prices for all qualities show that there was a decline for some time (between September 1, 2023 and September 6, 2023) and then remained constant (between September 6, 2023 and December 31, 2023).