A coronal mass ejection encountered by four spacecraft within 1 au from the Sun: Ensemble modelling of propagation and magnetic structure

TL;DR

This study uses multi-spacecraft observations and ensemble modelling to analyze the propagation and magnetic structure of a specific CME, enhancing understanding of its evolution and improving space weather prediction capabilities.

Contribution

It demonstrates the use of ensemble modelling with multiple spacecraft data to predict CME structure and explores the divergence in magnetic field estimates at different heliocentric distances.

Findings

Prediction spread increases with distance, indicating limits of multi-probe estimates.

Multi-spacecraft data provide valuable constraints for CME models.

Ensemble modelling helps assess uncertainties in CME propagation predictions.

Abstract

Understanding and predicting the structure and evolution of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) in the heliosphere remains one of the most sought-after goals in heliophysics and space weather research. A powerful tool for improving current knowledge and capabilities consists of multi-spacecraft observations of the same event, which take place when two or more spacecraft fortuitously find themselves in the path of a single CME. Multi-probe events can not only supply useful data to evaluate the large-scale of CMEs from 1D in-situ trajectories, but also provide additional constraints and validation opportunities for CME propagation models. In this work, we analyse and simulate the coronal and heliospheric evolution of a slow, streamer-blowout CME that erupted on 23 September 2021 and was encountered in situ by four spacecraft approximately equally distributed in heliocentric distance between 0.4 and 1 au. We employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) modelling suite in ensemble mode to predict the CME arrival and structure in a hindcast fashion and to compute the "best-fit" solutions at the different spacecraft individually and together. We find that the spread in the predicted quantities increases with heliocentric distance, suggesting that there may be a maximum (angular and radial) separation between an inner and an outer probe beyond which estimates of the in-situ magnetic field orientation (parameterised by flux rope model geometry) increasingly diverge. We discuss the importance of these exceptional observations and the results of our investigation in the context of advancing our understanding of CME structure and evolution as well as improving space weather forecasts.