Air Pollution and Under-5 Child Mortality: Evidence from China's Coal Power Plant Phase-out Policy

TL;DR

This study assesses how China's coal power plant shutdown policy during 2006-2010 reduced under-5 child mortality by analyzing detailed plant, pollution, and health data with advanced statistical methods.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive analysis linking coal plant phase-out to child mortality reduction using a novel dataset and IV-Lasso modeling approach.

Findings

Approximately 46,000 lives saved during policy period

Heterogeneous effects observed across different regions

Significant reduction in PM2.5 and SO2 levels associated with mortality decline

Abstract

This paper evaluates the impact of a mandatory shutdown policy of small-capacity coal power plants during China's $11^{th}$ 5-Year Plan period (2006--2010) on under-5 mortality. We collect capacity and location information on 2181 coal power plants that operated during 2000--2010 and compile a unique data set that combines coal power plants, county-level under-5 mortality and socioeconomic variables, high spatial resolution data of PM$_{2.5}$ and SO$_2$ and meteorological conditions. We model the impacts of air pollution on under-5 mortality using the IV-Lasso method, with distance-weighted sums of retired capacity and high-altitude wind status as instrumental variable candidates for air pollution. Our estimates imply that the phase-out policy saved around 46,000 lives during the $11^{th}$ 5-Year Plan period. We also find heterogeneity in the policy effects across regions. (\textit{JEL} I10, I18, P25, P28, Q52, Q53, Q58)