A Probabilistic Framework for Estimating the Modal Age at Death

TL;DR

This paper introduces a probabilistic framework that estimates the full distribution and uncertainty of the modal age at death, enhancing understanding of longevity patterns beyond point estimates.

Contribution

It presents a novel multinomial-based probabilistic method for estimating the distribution of the modal age at death, accounting for data variability and uncertainty.

Findings

Captures variability in modal age estimates

Provides uncertainty quantification for mortality data

Improves robustness of longevity analysis

Abstract

\noindent The modal age at death is an increasingly used measure for understanding longevity and mortality patterns. However, existing estimation methods focus on point estimates, overlooking the inherent variability and uncertainty in mortality data. This study addresses this gap by introducing a probabilistic framework for estimating the probability distribution of the modal age at death. Using a multinomial model for age-specific death counts and leveraging a Gaussian approximation, our methodology captures variability while aligning with the discrete nature of mortality data. Empirical examples are based on mortality data from six different countries. By quantifying uncertainty around the modal age at death and improving robustness to data fluctuations, this approach offers valuable insights for demographic research and policy planning.