Assessing the detection of the Yarkovsky effect using Gaia DR3 and FPR catalogues

TL;DR

This study leverages Gaia DR3 and FPR catalogues to detect the Yarkovsky effect in near-Earth asteroids, improving detection confidence and orbital predictions crucial for impact risk assessment.

Contribution

It introduces a method to detect the Yarkovsky effect using Gaia FPR data, achieving new reliable detections and demonstrating improved orbital modeling accuracy.

Findings

Detected Yarkovsky effect in 43 NEAs with high confidence.

Found 9 additional reliable Yarkovsky detections using Gaia FPR.

Improved orbital element uncertainties and signal-to-noise ratios with Gaia FPR data.

Abstract

The primary objective of this study was to utilize the newest Gaia FPR catalogue containing ultra-precise asteroid astrometry spanning over 66 months to detect the Yarkovsky effect, a non-gravitational acceleration that affects the orbits of small asteroids. Moreover, this study examines close approaches of near-Earth asteroids by comparing orbits calculated using the Gaia data. We used the conventional least-squares orbit computation method available in the OrbFit software. We used the latest Gaia Focused Product Release, complemented by data from the Minor Planet Center and radar astrometry from the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. We fitted orbital parameters for 446 Near-Earth Asteroids, including the additional non-gravitational transverse acceleration to model the Yarkovsky effect. Furthermore, we compared the results obtained using different datasets: Gaia Focused Product Release and the previous Gaia Data Release 3. We detected a robust Yarkovsky effect in 43 NEAs. As expected, we found an improvement in the orbital elements uncertainty and in the signal-to-noise ratio of the Yarkovsky effect detections when using the current Gaia FPR with double the observing arc compared to the DR3 catalog. We also found nine additional reliable detections of the Yarkovsky effect when using the new Gaia FPR catalog. Including the Yarkovsky effect in the force model can be important to reliably estimate close approach distances of near-Earth asteroids. Several of the detected Yarkovsky drifts already have a signal-to-noise ratio greater than 10, which is high enough for their Yarkovsky effect to be included in their reliable long-term orbital evolution, close approach, and Earth impact analysis. The final Gaia catalog may provide a much higher number of high signal-to-noise ratio detections of the Yarkovsky effect.