How to quantify interaction strengths? A critical rethinking of the interaction Jacobian and evaluation methods for non-parametric inference in time series analysis

TL;DR

This paper critically reexamines how interaction strengths are quantified in ecological time series, proposing adjustments to the interaction Jacobian and introducing a new benchmark, CIS, to improve non-parametric inference accuracy.

Contribution

It identifies issues in the biological interpretation and numerical implementation of the interaction Jacobian and proposes solutions including a diagonal adjustment and a new benchmark, CIS.

Findings

Adjusting the Jacobian's diagonal improves interaction strength estimates.

CIS provides a more rigorous benchmark than existing parametric Jacobian.

Numerical gaps highlight the need for improved evaluation methods.

Abstract

Quantifying interaction strengths between state variables in dynamical systems is essential for understanding ecological networks. Within the empirical dynamic modeling approach, multivariate S-map infers the interaction Jacobian from time series data without assuming specific dynamical models. This approach enables the non-parametric statistical inference of interspecific interactions through state space reconstruction. However, deviations in the biological interpretation and numerical implementation of the interaction Jacobian from its mathematical definition pose challenges. We mathematically reintroduce the interaction Jacobian using differential quotients, uncovering two problems: (1) the mismatch between the interaction Jacobian and its biological meaning complicates comparisons between interspecific and intraspecific interactions; (2) the interaction Jacobian is not fully implemented in the parametric Jacobian numerically derived from given parametric models, especially using ordinary differential equations. As a result, model-based evaluations of S-map methods become inappropriate. To address these problems, (1) we propose adjusting the diagonal elements of the interaction Jacobian by subtracting 1 to resolve the comparability problem between inter- and intraspecific interaction strengths. Simulations of population dynamics showed that this adjustment prevents overestimation of intraspecific interaction strengths. (2) We introduce an alternative parametric Jacobian and then cumulative interaction strength (CIS), providing a more rigorous benchmark for evaluating S-map methods. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the numerical gap between CIS and the existing parametric Jacobian is substantial in realistic scenarios, suggesting CIS as preferred benchmark. These solutions offer a clearer framework for developing non-parametric approaches in ecological time series analysis.