Mapping Methane -- The Impact of Dairy Farm Practices on Emissions Through Satellite Data and Machine Learning

TL;DR

This study combines satellite data, farm attributes, and machine learning to analyze and predict methane emissions from dairy farms, highlighting genetic and management factors influencing emissions and improving assessment accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces an integrated approach using satellite observations, statistical analysis, and machine learning to better understand and predict dairy farm methane emissions.

Findings

Strong negative correlation between breeding value for protein and methane levels

Enhanced emission estimates through atmospheric transport modeling

Machine learning models identify key farm characteristics affecting emissions

Abstract

This study investigates the correlation between dairy farm characteristics and methane concentrations as derived from satellite observations in Eastern Canada. Utilizing data from 11 dairy farms collected between January 2020 and December 2022, we integrated Sentinel-5P satellite methane data with critical farm-level attributes, including herd genetics, feeding practices, and management strategies. Initial analyses revealed significant correlations with methane concentrations, leading to the application of Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to address multicollinearity and enhance model stability. Subsequently, machine learning models - specifically Random Forest and Neural Networks - were employed to evaluate feature importance and predict methane emissions. Our findings indicate a strong negative correlation between the Estimated Breeding Value (EBV) for protein percentage and methane concentrations, suggesting that genetic selection for higher milk protein content could be an effective strategy for emissions reduction. The integration of atmospheric transport models with satellite data further refined our emission estimates, significantly enhancing accuracy and spatial resolution. This research underscores the potential of advanced satellite monitoring, machine learning techniques, and atmospheric modeling in improving methane emission assessments within the dairy sector. It emphasizes the critical role of farm-specific characteristics in developing effective mitigation strategies. Future investigations should focus on expanding the dataset and incorporating inversion modeling for more precise emission quantification. Balancing ecological impacts with economic viability will be essential for fostering sustainable dairy farming practices.