Simulating the Arrival of Multiple Coronal Mass Ejections that Triggered the Gannon Superstorm on May 10, 2024

TL;DR

This paper presents a comprehensive simulation study of the May 10, 2024, extreme space weather event caused by multiple CMEs, validating advanced models against observations and analyzing their predictive accuracy.

Contribution

It introduces a multi-model simulation framework for predicting complex CME interactions and validates these models with actual observations of the 2024 storm.

Findings

Models predicted CME arrival times within 5 hours of observations.

Multiple CMEs nearly simultaneously caused the extreme storm.

Sensitivity of CME arrival time to solar wind parameters was demonstrated.

Abstract

The May 10, 2024 space weather event stands out as the most powerful storm recorded during the current solar cycle. This study employs a numerical framework utilizing a semi-empirical coronal model, along with HUXt (Heliospheric Upwind eXtrapolation with time-dependence) and cone-CME models for the inner heliosphere, to forecast solar wind velocity and the arrival of CMEs associated with this event. The simulations were also carried out using Space Weather Adaptive SimulaTion (SWASTi) and a drag-based model (DBM) for this complex event of multiple CMEs. Predicted arrival times and velocities from these models are compared with actual observations at the Sun-Earth L1 point. These simulations reveal that three coronal mass ejections (CMEs) reached Earth nearly simultaneously, resulting in the extreme space weather event, followed by the arrival of a few more eruptions. The simulations accurately predicted arrival times with a discrepancy of approximately 5 hours or less for these CMEs. Further, the ensemble study of DBM shows the sensitivity of the CME arrival time to the background solar wind speed and drag parameters. All three models have done fairly well in reproducing the arrival time closely to the actual observation of the CMEs responsible for the extreme geomagnetic storm of May 10, 2024. These rare solar storms offered a unique opportunity to thoroughly evaluate and validate our advanced models for predicting their arrival on the Earth.