How Transit Countries Become Refugee Destinations: Insights from Central and Eastern Europe

TL;DR

This paper investigates how refugees' destination preferences in Central and Eastern Europe, especially Romania, change during transit, influenced by safety, asylum conditions, and social networks, using mixed methods.

Contribution

It provides new insights into refugee decision-making during transit, highlighting Romania's emerging role as a settlement destination and challenging traditional transit country views.

Findings

Refugee preferences shift during transit due to safety and asylum concerns.

Romania is increasingly seen as a viable settlement destination.

Safety concerns dominate economic considerations during transit.

Abstract

This study explores how refugees' destination preferences evolve during transit, with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe, particularly Romania. Using a mixed-methods approach, we analyse data from the International Organization for Migration's (IOM) Flow Monitoring Surveys and complement it with qualitative insights from focus group discussions with refugees. The quantitative analysis reveals that refugees' preferences for destination countries often change during transit, influenced by factors such as safety concerns, asylum conditions, education, and the presence of relatives at the destination. Our results support the application of bounded rationality and human capital theory, showing that while economic opportunities are important, safety becomes the dominant concern during transit. The qualitative analysis adds depth to these findings, highlighting the role of political instability, social networks, and economic hardships as initial migration drivers. Additionally, the study reveals how refugees reassess their destination choices based on their experiences in transit countries, with Romania emerging as a viable settlement destination due to its relative stability and access to asylum procedures. This research contributes to migration studies by challenging the traditional view of transit countries and offering new insights into the fluid nature of refugee decision-making.