When to Commute During the COVID-19 Pandemic and Beyond: Analysis of Traffic Crashes in Washington, D.C

TL;DR

This study analyzes historical traffic crash data in Washington, D.C., to identify safer commuting times and factors influencing crashes, aiming to inform better travel decisions and policies to reduce accidents.

Contribution

It develops a predictive model for traffic crashes based on time and weather factors, incorporating negative binomial and Random Forest regressions, to improve crash risk assessment.

Findings

Identifies safer commuting hours in Washington, D.C.

Highlights weather and time as significant factors affecting crashes.

Provides a tool for policymakers to reduce traffic accidents.

Abstract

Many workers in cities across the world, who have been teleworking because of the COVID-19 pandemic, are expected to be back to their commutes. As this process is believed to be gradual and telecommuting is likely to remain an option for many workers, hybrid model and flexible schedules might become the norm in the future. This variable work schedules allows employees to commute outside of traditional rush hours. Moreover, many studies showed that commuters might be skeptical of using trains, buses, and carpools and could turn to personal vehicles to get to work, which might increase congestion and crashes in the roads. This study attempts to provide information on the safest time to commute to Washington, DC area analyzing historical traffic crash data before the COVID-19 pandemic. It also aims to advance our understanding of traffic crashes and other relating factors such as weather in the Washington, DC area. We created a model to predict crashes by time of the day, using a negative binomial regression after rejecting a Poisson regression, and additionally explored the validity of a Random Forest regression. Our main consideration for an eventual application of this study is to reduce crashes in Washington DC, using this tool that provides people with better options on when to commute and when to telework, if available. The study also provides policymakers and researchers with real-world insights that decrease the number of traffic crashes to help achieve the goals of The Vision Zero Initiative adopted by the district.