A Temporal Playbook for Multiple Wave Dengue Pandemic from Latin America and Asia to Italy

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that the epidemiological Renormalization Group framework effectively models multi-wave Dengue pandemics across different regions, revealing links to temperature changes and projecting future outbreaks.

Contribution

It introduces and validates the use of the eRG framework for modeling Dengue pandemics in diverse geographic settings and links disease dynamics to climate factors.

Findings

eRG accurately describes multi-wave Dengue outbreaks

Strong correlation between infections and local temperature

Global warming likely increases Dengue cases worldwide

Abstract

We show that the epidemiological Renormalization Group (eRG) framework is a useful and minimal tool to effectively describe the temporal evolution of the Dengue multi-wave pandemics. We test the framework on the Dengue history of several countries located in both Latin America and Asia. We also observe a strong correlation between the total number of infected individuals and the changes in the local temperature. Our results further support the expectation that global warming is bound to increase the cases of Dengue worldwide. We then move to investigate, via the eRG, the recent outbreak in Fano, Italy and offer our projections.