NEOviz: Uncertainty-Driven Visual Analysis of Asteroid Trajectories

TL;DR

NEOviz is an interactive visualization tool that helps planetary defense experts analyze uncertain asteroid trajectories and assess impact risks by visualizing 3D uncertainty regions and divergence over time.

Contribution

It introduces a novel 3D uncertainty visualization approach and impact mapping tailored for asteroid trajectory analysis, developed with expert input.

Findings

Effective visualization of 3D uncertainty regions

Enhanced understanding of trajectory divergence

Improved risk assessment for potential impactors

Abstract

We introduce NEOviz, an interactive visualization system designed to assist planetary defense experts in the visual analysis of the movements of near-Earth objects in the Solar System that might prove hazardous to Earth. Asteroids are often discovered using optical telescopes and their trajectories are calculated from images, resulting in an inherent asymmetric uncertainty in their position and velocity. Consequently, we typically cannot determine the exact trajectory of an asteroid, and an ensemble of trajectories must be generated to estimate an asteroid's movement over time. When propagating these ensembles over decades, it is challenging to visualize the varying paths and determine their potential impact on Earth, which could cause catastrophic damage. NEOviz equips experts with the necessary tools to effectively analyze the existing catalog of asteroid observations. In particular, we present a novel approach for visualizing the 3D uncertainty region through which an asteroid travels, while providing accurate spatial context in relation to system-critical infrastructure such as Earth, the Moon, and artificial satellites. Furthermore, we use NEOviz to visualize the divergence of asteroid trajectories, capturing high-variance events in an asteroid's orbital properties. For potential impactors, we combine the 3D visualization with an uncertainty-aware impact map to illustrate the potential risks to human populations. NEOviz was developed with continuous input from members of the planetary defense community through a participatory design process. It is exemplified in three real-world use cases and evaluated via expert feedback interviews.