No missing flare in OJ~287

TL;DR

The paper clarifies that the absence of the 2022 flare in OJ~287 is due to observational limitations, not a failure of the theoretical model predicting the flare sequence.

Contribution

It demonstrates that the supposed 'missing flare' issue is a misconception caused by observational constraints during the 2022 campaign.

Findings

No flare was observed in 2022 due to observational constraints.

The theoretical model accurately predicts flare timings, including non-observation periods.

The 'missing flare' problem is a misunderstanding, not a discrepancy in the model.

Abstract

The quasar OJ~287 has shown large flares since 1888, following a pattern that arises in a supermassive black hole binary when the secondary hits the accretion disk of the primary, and releases a hot bubble of gas at every disk crossing. A complete mathematical solution of the flare sequence produced a list of future flares, the latest happening in the summer of 2022. Here I look into the origin of the idea that the lack of seeing the 2022 flare is a theoretical problem. During the summer OJ~287 cannot be observed by ground-based optical telescopes. In a paper published in 2021, ahead of the 2022 observing campaign, this was clearly stated. The often repeated claim that there is a "missing flare problem", is a misunderstanding, as no detection was possible with the current instrumentation.