Exploring Fermi's Paradox using an Intragalactic Colonization Model

TL;DR

This paper models interstellar civilization dispersal and conflicts to investigate Fermi's Paradox, revealing how civilization growth balance affects galaxy colonization patterns and the potential persistence of small civilizations.

Contribution

It introduces a novel simulation framework combining differential equations, a battle model, and Unity engine to analyze galaxy-wide colonization and conflict dynamics.

Findings

Civilizations can collapse if growth is unbalanced.

Dominating civilizations create large spatial gaps.

Small civilizations may persist in gaps left by larger ones.

Abstract

We explore Fermi's Paradox via a system of differential equations and using simulations of dispersal and interactions between competing interplanetary civilizations. To quantify the resources and potentials of these worlds, three different state variables representing population, environment, and technology, are used. When encounters occur between two different civilizations, the deterministic Lanchester Battle Model is used to determine the outcome of the conflict. We use the Unity engine to simulate the possible outcomes of colonization by different types of civilizations to further investigate Fermi's question. When growth rates of population, technology and nature are out of balance, planetary civilizations can collapse. If the balance is adequate, then some civilizations can develop into dominating ones; nevertheless, they leave large spatial gaps in the distribution of their colonies. The unexpected result is that small civilizations can be left in existence by dominating civilizations in a galaxy due to those large gaps. Our results provide some insights into the validity of various solutions to Fermi's Paradox.