Guiding Self-Organizing Dynamics of Residential Choice in Cities to Reduce Traffic Congestion and Carbon Emissions

TL;DR

This study analyzes how self-organizing residential choices can significantly reduce traffic congestion and carbon emissions in cities, supported by data from Chinese urban areas and a new data-driven model.

Contribution

It introduces a data-driven model of residential self-organization and demonstrates its potential to alleviate urban traffic and emissions through residential swapping strategies.

Findings

Home swapping reduces commuting distance by 50.4%.

Carbon emissions decrease by 77.3% with city-wide swaps.

Reductions remain significant even after considering socio-demographic factors.

Abstract

Rapid urbanization and growing vehicle ownership exacerbate traffic congestion and prolong commute times. We examine the self-organizing dynamics of residential choice via a hypothetical home-swapping process to mitigate peak-hour traffic congestion and carbon emissions. Specifically, we analyze over 400,000 trajectories from 9 days in a major Chinese city, revealing that actual average commuting distance is approximately three times shorter than under random residential distribution, indicating significant self-organization. Notably, city-wide home swapping reduces commuting distance by 50.4%, substantially easing traffic congestion, thereby reducing carbon emissions by 77.3%. Even with the consideration of socio-demographic factors and individual needs, the reductions remain significant: 8.1%-10.3% in commuting distance and 27.4%-34.4% in carbon emissions. Considering the potential induction of additional non-commuting trips, the reduction in carbon emissions remains substantial. Given the primacy of distance to the city center, polycentric city layouts can enhance these benefits. For validation, we use another dataset covering China's 28 major cities to confirm these findings. Finally, we introduce a data-driven model to elucidate self-organizing dynamics of residential choice and analyze the feasibility of government coordination. These insights demonstrate that a synergistic alignment of residential choices can leverage individual and city-level benefits, effectively alleviating commuting congestion and associated emissions.