Zero-inflated stochastic block modeling of efficiency-security tradeoffs in weighted criminal networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson stochastic block model to analyze weighted criminal networks, revealing hidden efficiency-security tradeoffs and resilient group structures that previous models could not detect.

Contribution

The paper develops a novel computationally-tractable Bayesian ZIP-SBM that captures complex patterns in weighted criminal networks, including zero-inflation and group redundancies.

Findings

Unveiled efficiency-security tradeoffs in Mafia networks

Identified redundant criminal groups with similar connectivity

Demonstrated model effectiveness through simulations and real data

Abstract

Criminal networks arise from the unique attempt to balance a need of establishing frequent ties among affiliates to facilitate the coordination of illegal activities, with the necessity to sparsify the overall connectivity architecture to hide from law enforcement. This efficiency-security tradeoff is also combined with the creation of groups of redundant criminals that exhibit similar connectivity patterns, thus guaranteeing resilient network architectures. State-of-the-art models for such data are not designed to infer these unique structures. In contrast to such solutions we develop a computationally-tractable Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson stochastic block model (ZIP-SBM), which identifies groups of redundant criminals with similar connectivity patterns, and infers both overt and covert block interactions within and across such groups. This is accomplished by modeling weighted ties (corresponding to counts of interactions among pairs of criminals) via zero-inflated Poisson distributions with block-specific parameters that quantify complex patterns in the excess of zero ties in each block (security) relative to the distribution of the observed weighted ties within that block (efficiency). The performance of ZIP-SBM is illustrated in simulations and in a study of summits co-attendances in a complex Mafia organization, where we unveil efficiency-security structures adopted by the criminal organization that were hidden to previous analyses.