Relationship Between the Tilt Angle of Sunspot Group and the Properties of the Next Solar Cycle

TL;DR

This study analyzes how sunspot group tilt angles during the declining phase of a solar cycle relate to the properties of the subsequent cycle, revealing significant correlations that could help predict solar activity.

Contribution

It identifies specific tilt-angle parameters during the declining phase that significantly correlate with the next cycle's strength, amplitude, and duration, advancing solar cycle prediction methods.

Findings

Six tilt-related quantities show significant anti-correlations with next cycle strength and amplitude.

Tilt-angle scatter during the declining phase influences the variability of the next solar cycle.

Mean tilt angle during the declining phase is not significantly correlated with next cycle parameters.

Abstract

Based on the data from the Kodaikanal and Mount Wilson observatories, we investigate the relationships of the tilt angle of sunspot group (SG), including the mean tilt angle and the tilt-angle scatter, during the declining phase with the parameters of the next solar cycle (SC). The main findings are summarized in the following three points. (1) During the declining phase, the correlation between the mean tilt angle and the tilt-angle scatter is statistically insignificant. (2) Six quantities measured during the declining phase show significant anti-correlations with the strength and amplitude of the next SC, and positive correlations with the duration of the ascending phase of the next SC: the standard deviation of tilt angles, the root-mean-square tilt angle, the mean absolute value of tilt angles, the area-weighted absolute value of tilt angles, the latitude-weighted absolute value of tilt angles, and the area- and latitude-weighted absolute value of tilt angles. (3) The correlations of the mean tilt angle, the area-weighted tilt angle, the latitude-weighted tilt angle, and the area- and latitude- weighted tilt angle during the declining phase with the strength, amplitude, and duration of the ascending phase of the next SC are statistically insignificant. These findings demonstrate that the modulation of parameters of the next SC by the tilt-angle scatter during the declining phase plays a vital role in regulating SC variability.