Near Earth stream decoherence revisited: the limits of orbital similarity

TL;DR

This paper critically evaluates the reliability of orbital similarity measures in identifying meteoroid streams and NEO associations, highlighting the rapid decoherence due to chaotic dynamics and the limitations posed by data uncertainties.

Contribution

It demonstrates that most reported associations are likely coincidental and emphasizes the importance of considering chaos and data quality in stream identification.

Findings

Most reported stream associations are statistically insignificant.

Chaotic dynamics cause rapid decoherence of meteoroid streams.

Significant clusters in NEOs are consistent with tidal disruption models.

Abstract

Context. Orbital similarity measures, such as the D-values, have been extensively used in meteor science to identify meteoroid streams and associate meteorite falls with near-Earth objects (NEOs). However, the chaotic nature of near-Earth space challenges the long-term reliability of these measures for stream identification, and the increasing size of our fireball, meteorite fall, and NEO databases make random associations more common. Despite this, many researchers erroneously continue to use orbital similarity beyond its inherent limits. Aims. We aim to assess the statistical significance of using orbital similarity measures for identifying streams of meteoroids or asteroids and explore the implications of chaotic dynamics on the long-term coherence of these streams. Conclusions. The rapid decoherence of meteoroid streams and the chaotic dynamics of near-Earth orbits suggest that no reported stream or NEO associations of meteorites or fireballs are statistically significant according to orbital discriminates. Many are likely coincidental rather than indicative of a true physical link. However, several statistically significant clusters found within the NEO population are consistent with a tidal disruption formation. This contrast and lack of statistically significant associations amongst the impact datasets is likely due to the fireball databases being 2 orders of magnitude smaller than the NEO database and the higher intrinsic uncertainties of fireball observation derived orbits.