Systemic Decarbonization of Road Freight Transport: A Comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership Model

TL;DR

This paper presents a comprehensive TCO model for decarbonizing road freight, analyzing economic viability and pathways for zero-emission vehicles to become cost-competitive.

Contribution

It introduces a detailed TCO framework integrating vehicle, infrastructure, and policy factors for decarbonizing freight transport.

Findings

Zero-emission vehicles will become cost-competitive with diesel vehicles due to technological advancements.

The model covers multiple vehicle types and powertrain options with real-world data.

Policy incentives can accelerate the adoption of zero-emission freight vehicles.

Abstract

The decarbonization of road freight transport is crucial for reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) and achieving climate neutrality goals. This study develops a comprehensive Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model to evaluate the economic viability and strategic pathways for decarbonizing road freight transport. The model integrates vehicles with infrastructures, encompassing costs associated with acquisition, operation, maintenance, energy consumption, environmental impacts, and end-of-life considerations. Our analysis covers medium- and heavy-duty vehicles across eight powertrain types, with variants on battery sizes and fuel cell powers, incorporating key financial parameters, technological advancements, and policy incentives. Data sources include real-world fleet data and costs gathered from expert interviews, cross-referenced with multiple public resources. Findings indicate that zero-emission and near-zero-emission vehicles, though currently more expensive, will become cost-competitive with diesel vehicles by leveraging advancements in battery, fuel cell, and hydrogen technologies.