Leveraging AI and Sentiment Analysis for Forecasting Election Outcomes in Mauritius

TL;DR

This paper presents an AI-based sentiment analysis approach to forecast Mauritius' 2024 election outcomes, using media sentiment data as a reliable alternative to traditional polls.

Contribution

It introduces a novel multilingual BERT-based sentiment analysis model combined with a custom scoring algorithm for election forecasting in regions lacking polling data.

Findings

Positive media sentiment correlates with electoral gains

L'Alliance Du Changement predicted to win at least 37 seats

Method offers a scalable alternative to traditional polling

Abstract

This study explores the use of AI-driven sentiment analysis as a novel tool for forecasting election outcomes, focusing on Mauritius' 2024 elections. In the absence of reliable polling data, we analyze media sentiment toward two main political parties L'Alliance Lepep and L'Alliance Du Changement by classifying news articles from prominent Mauritian media outlets as positive, negative, or neutral. We employ a multilingual BERT-based model and a custom Sentiment Scoring Algorithm to quantify sentiment dynamics and apply the Sentiment Impact Score (SIS) for measuring sentiment influence over time. Our forecast model suggests L'Alliance Du Changement is likely to secure a minimum of 37 seats, while L'Alliance Lepep is predicted to obtain the remaining 23 seats out of the 60 available. Findings indicate that positive media sentiment strongly correlates with projected electoral gains, underscoring the role of media in shaping public perception. This approach not only mitigates media bias through adjusted scoring but also serves as a reliable alternative to traditional polling. The study offers a scalable methodology for political forecasting in regions with limited polling infrastructure and contributes to advancements in the field of political data science.