Predicting Mortality and Functional Status Scores of Traumatic Brain Injury Patients using Supervised Machine Learning

TL;DR

This study evaluates multiple supervised machine learning models to predict mortality and functional outcomes in pediatric traumatic brain injury patients, aiming to improve clinical decision-making and personalized treatment strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive comparison of 18 ML models for TBI outcome prediction using real-world data and highlights effective feature selection for model efficiency.

Findings

Logistic regression and Extra Trees achieved high accuracy in mortality prediction.

Linear regression best predicted Functional Status Scale scores.

Feature selection improved model interpretability and performance.

Abstract

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) presents a significant public health challenge, often resulting in mortality or lasting disability. Predicting outcomes such as mortality and Functional Status Scale (FSS) scores can enhance treatment strategies and inform clinical decision-making. This study applies supervised machine learning (ML) methods to predict mortality and FSS scores using a real-world dataset of 300 pediatric TBI patients from the University of Colorado School of Medicine. The dataset captures clinical features, including demographics, injury mechanisms, and hospitalization outcomes. Eighteen ML models were evaluated for mortality prediction, and thirteen models were assessed for FSS score prediction. Performance was measured using accuracy, ROC AUC, F1-score, and mean squared error. Logistic regression and Extra Trees models achieved high precision in mortality prediction, while linear regression demonstrated the best FSS score prediction. Feature selection reduced 103 clinical variables to the most relevant, enhancing model efficiency and interpretability. This research highlights the role of ML models in identifying high-risk patients and supporting personalized interventions, demonstrating the potential of data-driven analytics to improve TBI care and integrate into clinical workflows.