Estimating early coronal mass ejection propagation direction with DIRECD during the severe May 8 and follow-up June 8, 2024 events

TL;DR

This study introduces the DIRECD method to estimate early CME propagation directions using coronal dimming expansion, validated against white-light data, enhancing early space weather prediction capabilities.

Contribution

The paper presents a novel approach, DIRECD, for early CME direction estimation from coronal dimming, validated with multi-instrument observations, improving space weather forecasting accuracy.

Findings

DIRECD accurately estimates CME direction from coronal dimming data.

CME properties from low corona match white-light coronagraph observations.

Early detection of CME trajectory can improve space weather forecasts.

Abstract

On May 8, 2024, solar active region 13664 produced an X-class flare, several M-class flares, and multiple Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs). The initial CME caused coronal dimmings, characterized by localized reductions in extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) emissions, indicating mass loss and expansion during the eruption. After one solar rotation, on June 8, 2024, the same region produced another M-class flare followed by coronal dimmings observed by the SDO and STEREO spacecraft. We analyzed early CME evolution and direction from coronal dimming expansion at the end of the impulsive phase using the DIRECD (Dimming Inferred Estimation of CME Direction) method. To validate the 3D CME cone, we compared CME properties from the low corona with white-light coronagraph data. The May 8 CME expanded radially, with a 7.7 deg inclination, 70 deg angular width, and 0.81 Rsun cone height, while the June 8 CME had a 15.7 deg inclination, 81 deg width, and 0.89 Rsun height. Our study shows that tracking low coronal signatures, like coronal dimming expansion, can estimate CME direction early, providing crucial lead time for space weather forecasts.