Long-term Dynamical Stability in the Outer Solar System. II. Detailed Secular Evolution of Four Large Regular and Resonant Trans-Neptunian Objects

TL;DR

This study investigates the long-term orbital stability and secular evolution of four large trans-Neptunian objects, revealing their varying degrees of stability, chaotic behaviors, and underlying dynamical mechanisms through extensive simulations.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of the secular evolution of specific trans-Neptunian objects, highlighting the limitations of individual simulations and uncovering new dynamical insights.

Findings

2015 KH162 is a stable, non-resonant object with limited orbital variation

Pluto exhibits extreme stability with a new constraining mechanism identified

Eris's orbit shows unexpected drift, indicating missing elements in current models

Abstract

The long-term evolution of the outer Solar System is subject to the influence of the giant planets, however, perturbations from other massive bodies located in the region imprint secular signatures, that are discernible in long-term simulations. In this work, we performed an in-depth analysis of the evolution of massive objects Eris, 2015 KH$_{162}$, Pluto, and 2010 EK$_{139}$ (a.k.a. Dziewanna), subject to perturbations from the giant planets and the 34 largest trans-Neptunian objects. We do this by analysing 200, 1 Gyr long simulations with identical initial conditions, but requiring the numerical integrator to take different time steps for each realization. Despite the integrator's robustness, each run's results are surprisingly different, showing the limitations of individual realizations when studying the trans-Neptunian region due to its intrinsic chaotic nature. For each object, we find orbital variables with well-defined oscillations and limits, and others with surprisingly large variances and seemingly erratic behaviors. We found that 2015 KH$_{162}$ is a non-resonant and very stable object that experiences only limited orbital excursions. Pluto is even more stable and we found a new underlying constraining mechanism for its orbit; 2010 EK$_{139}$ is not well trapped in the 7:2 mean motion resonance in the long-term and cannot be trapped simultaneously in von-Zeipel-Lidov-Kozai resonance; and finally, we found that at present Eris's longitude of perihelion is stationary, tightly librating around 190$^\circ$, but unexpectedly loses its confinement, drifting away after 150 Myr, suggesting a missing element in our model.