Intelligent Computing Social Modeling and Methodological Innovations in Political Science in the Era of Large Language Models

TL;DR

This paper introduces the ICSM method leveraging large language models to innovate social modeling in political science, demonstrating its effectiveness through a simulated U.S. presidential election and highlighting its potential to enhance research paradigms.

Contribution

It proposes the ICSM method that integrates LLMs into political science research, advancing both quantitative and qualitative paradigms through simulation and social mechanism discovery.

Findings

Empirically demonstrated ICSM's operational pathways via election simulation.

Showed ICSM enhances social science research by balancing interpretability and predictability.

Indicated LLMs will drive methodological innovation through integration, not substitution.

Abstract

The recent wave of artificial intelligence, epitomized by large language models (LLMs),has presented opportunities and challenges for methodological innovation in political science,sparking discussions on a potential paradigm shift in the social sciences. However, how can weunderstand the impact of LLMs on knowledge production and paradigm transformation in thesocial sciences from a comprehensive perspective that integrates technology and methodology? What are LLMs' specific applications and representative innovative methods in political scienceresearch? These questions, particularly from a practical methodological standpoint, remainunderexplored. This paper proposes the "Intelligent Computing Social Modeling" (ICSM) methodto address these issues by clarifying the critical mechanisms of LLMs. ICSM leverages thestrengths of LLMs in idea synthesis and action simulation, advancing intellectual exploration inpolitical science through "simulated social construction" and "simulation validation." Bysimulating the U.S. presidential election, this study empirically demonstrates the operationalpathways and methodological advantages of ICSM. By integrating traditional social scienceparadigms, ICSM not only enhances the quantitative paradigm's capability to apply big data toassess the impact of factors but also provides qualitative paradigms with evidence for socialmechanism discovery at the individual level, offering a powerful tool that balances interpretabilityand predictability in social science research. The findings suggest that LLMs will drivemethodological innovation in political science through integration and improvement rather thandirect substitution.