Two-stage Online Reusable Resource Allocation: Reservation, Overbooking and Confirmation Call

TL;DR

This paper develops an online resource allocation policy for a two-stage reservation system with overbooking and cancellations, demonstrating near-optimal performance under certain conditions and validating with real hotel data.

Contribution

Introduces decoupled adaptive safety stocks and a policy that achieves exponential regret decay under busy season assumptions, improving over existing methods.

Findings

Regret is linear without busy season assumption.

Proposed policy achieves exponential regret decay under busy season.

Validated effectiveness with synthetic and hotel data.

Abstract

We study a two-stage online reusable resource allocation problem over T days involving advance reservations and walk-ins. Each day begins with a reservation stage (Stage I), where reservation requests arrive sequentially. When service starts (Stage II), both reserved and walk-in customers arrive to check in and occupy resources for several days. Reserved customers can cancel without penalty before or during a confirmation call initiated by the decision maker (DM) before day's end. The DM must immediately accept or reject each booking or check-in request, potentially overbooking by accepting more reservations than capacity. An overbooking loss occurs if a reserved customer's check-in is rejected in Stage II; a reward is obtained for each occupied resource unit daily. Our goal is to develop an online policy that controls bookings and check-ins to maximize total revenue over the T-day horizon. We show that due to cancellation uncertainties and complex correlations between occupancy durations, any online policy incurs a regret of \Omega(T) compared to the offline optimal policy when the \textit{busy season} assumption does not hold. To address this, we introduce decoupled adaptive safety stocks, which use only single-day information to hedge against overbooking risks and reduce resource idling. Under the busy season condition, our policy decouples the overall offline optimal into single-day offline optimal policies. Consequently, the regret between our policy and the offline optimal decays exponentially with the time between the confirmation call and day's end, suggesting the DM can delay confirmation calls while maintaining near-optimal performance. We validate our algorithm through sythetic experiments and empirical data from an Algarve resort hotel.