A Sequential Game Framework for Target Tracking

TL;DR

This paper introduces a game-theoretic framework combined with Kalman filtering to improve maritime target tracking, demonstrating significant performance gains over traditional methods in various scenarios.

Contribution

It presents a novel sequential game model for tracking and evading, incorporating imperfect information and multi-faceted criteria, advancing decision-making in target tracking systems.

Findings

Game-theoretic decision making increases tracker win percentage.

Traditional covariance minimization is less effective than the proposed method.

Simple linear evasion strategies are most effective for evaders in most scenarios.

Abstract

This paper investigates the application of game-theoretic principles combined with advanced Kalman filtering techniques to enhance maritime target tracking systems. Specifically, the paper presents a two-player, imperfect information, non-cooperative, sequential game framework for optimal decision making for a tracker and an evader. The paper also investigates the effectiveness of this game-theoretic decision making framework by comparing it with single-objective optimisation methods based on minimising tracking uncertainty. Rather than modelling a zero-sum game between the tracker and the evader, which presupposes the availability of perfect information, in this paper we model both the tracker and the evader as playing separate zero-sum games at each time step with an internal (and imperfect) model of the other player. The study defines multi-faceted winning criteria for both tracker and evader, and computes winning percentages for both by simulating their interaction for a range of speed ratios. The results indicate that game theoretic decision making improves the win percentage of the tracker compared to traditional covariance minimization procedures in all cases, regardless of the speed ratios and the actions of the evader. In the case of the evader, we find that a simpler linear escape action is most effective for the evader in most scenarios. Overall, the results indicate that the presented sequential-game based decision making framework significantly improves win percentages for a player in scenarios where that player does not have inherent advantages in terms of starting position, speed ratio, or available time (to track / escape), highlighting that game theoretic decision making is particularly useful in scenarios where winning by using more traditional decision making procedures is highly unlikely.