Opinion-driven risk perception and reaction in SIS epidemics

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model linking opinion-driven behavior changes to SIS epidemic dynamics, revealing how risk perception influences infection levels and potential eradication strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a coupled model of opinion formation and epidemic spread, demonstrating bistability and the impact of risk perception on infection outcomes.

Findings

Risk seeking behavior raises steady-state infection levels.

Risk aversion can lead to infection eradication.

High reactivity to opinions influences epidemic control.

Abstract

We present and analyze a mathematical model to study the feedback between behavior and epidemic spread in a population that is actively assessing and reacting to risk of infection. In our model, a population dynamically forms an opinion that reflects its willingness to engage in risky behavior (e.g., not wearing a mask in a crowded area) or reduce it (e.g., social distancing). We consider SIS epidemic dynamics in which the contact rate within a population adapts as a function of its opinion. For the new coupled model, we prove the existence of two distinct parameter regimes. One regime corresponds to a low baseline infectiousness, and the equilibria of the epidemic spread are identical to those of the standard SIS model. The other regime corresponds to a high baseline infectiousness, and there is a bistability between two new endemic equilibria that reflect an initial preference towards either risk seeking behavior or risk aversion. We prove that risk seeking behavior increases the steady-state infection level in the population compared to the baseline SIS model, whereas risk aversion decreases it. When a population is highly reactive to extreme opinions, we show how risk aversion enables the complete eradication of infection in the population. Extensions of the model to a network of populations or individuals are explored numerically.