Parameters estimation and uncertainty assessment in the transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs

TL;DR

This paper develops a mathematical model using ODEs to estimate parameters and assess uncertainties in rabies transmission dynamics between humans and dogs, informing control strategies.

Contribution

It introduces a novel parameter estimation and uncertainty assessment framework for rabies transmission models using next-generation matrices and sensitivity analysis.

Findings

Rabies-free equilibrium is globally stable when R0<1.

Endemic equilibrium is globally stable when R0≥1.

Control strategies targeting domestic dogs can effectively reduce rabies severity.

Abstract

Rabies remains a pressing global public health issue, demanding effective modeling and control strategies. This study focused on developing a mathematical model using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) to estimate parameters and assess uncertainties related to the transmission dynamics of rabies in humans and dogs. To determine model parameters and address uncertainties, next-generation matrices were utilized to calculate the basic reproduction number ${\cal R}_{0}$. Furthermore, the Partial Rank Correlation Coefficient was used to identify parameters that significantly influence model outputs. The analysis of equilibrium states revealed that the rabies-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when $R_0<1$, whereas the endemic equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when ${\cal R}_{0}\geq 1$. To reduce the severity of rabies and align with the Global Rabies Control (GRC) initiative by 2030, the study recommends implementing control strategies targeting indoor domestic dogs.