On the predictability of springtime ozone depletion events using the ECCC Global Deterministic Prediction System

TL;DR

This study evaluates the medium-range predictability of polar springtime ozone depletion events using the ECCC Global Deterministic Prediction System, highlighting the benefits of ozone radiative coupling on forecast accuracy.

Contribution

It demonstrates the improved predictability and impact of ozone-radiative coupling in the ECCC system during polar ozone depletion events.

Findings

Ozone predictability exceeds 10 days during spring.

Ozone radiative coupling significantly affects temperature and wind forecasts.

Coupled forecasts reduce temperature biases and improve vortex strength predictions.

Abstract

Ozone depletion events are recurring phenomena in both polar regions, characterized by significant interannual variability. In this study, the Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) Global Deterministic Prediction System is used to investigate the medium-range predictability of ozone and weather throughout the anomalous polar ozone depletion events of 2020. The system includes ozone assimilation and makes use of a prognostic ozone field for the computation of heating rates. The ozone scheme uses simplified photochemical modules to represent the impact of both gas-phase and heterogeneous reactions throughout polar ozone depletion events. The study shows that during the Boreal and Austral spring seasons, the predictability of the total ozone column exceeds 10 days and is comparable to the predictability of large-scale weather variables. It also demonstrates that over both polar regions, the inclusion of ozone radiative coupling has a significant impact on the temperature and wind distributions throughout the stratosphere. Over Antarctica, the ozone coupled forecasts are systematically colder at all lead times, which helps eliminate a temperature bias present in the model using climatological ozone. The strength of the polar vortex also increases significantly throughout the lower stratosphere, in better agreement with zonal wind analyses. Over the Arctic the use of an ozone-interactive model also produces significant changes in the temperature and wind forecasts, but the impact on the quality of the weather forecasts is generally neutral. The study shows the overall benefits of using ozone coupled models in the highly perturbed springtime conditions of the polar regions.