An independent evaluation of the Famine Early Warning Systems Network food security projections

TL;DR

This study evaluates the accuracy of FEWSNET's food security forecasts, revealing high overall performance but regional and temporal variations, highlighting areas for methodological improvements.

Contribution

It provides an independent assessment of FEWSNET's predictive accuracy, identifying strengths and weaknesses to guide future enhancements.

Findings

Overall accuracy of 78% in predictions

Significant regional and temporal performance variations

Highlights need for continuous forecast methodology refinement

Abstract

Reports from the Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWSNET) serve as the benchmark for food security predictions which is crucial for stakeholders in planning interventions and support people in need. This paper assesses the predictive accuracy of FEWSNET's food security forecasting, by comparing predictions to the following ground truth assessments at the administrative boundaries-livelihood level, revealing an overall high accuracy of 78\% across diverse timeframes and locations. However, our analysis also shows significant variations in performance across distinct regions and prediction periods. Therefore, our analysis sheds light on strengths, weaknesses, and areas for improvement in the context of food security predictions. The insights derived from this study not only enhance our understanding of FEWSNET's capabilities but also emphasize the importance of continuous refinement in forecasting methodologies.