Predicting Dengue Outbreaks: A Dynamic Approach with Variable Length Markov Chains and Exogenous Factors

TL;DR

This paper introduces an advanced stochastic modeling approach using Variable Length Markov Chains with exogenous factors to predict dengue outbreaks across multiple locations, integrating diverse data sources for improved accuracy.

Contribution

It extends the beta-context algorithm to incorporate time-dependent and invariant exogenous covariates, enabling comprehensive multi-source analysis without spatial structural assumptions.

Findings

Effective integration of weather, socioeconomic, and dengue data improves outbreak prediction.

Unified tree models capture transmission dynamics across different municipalities.

Method addresses low-frequency contexts for robust modeling.

Abstract

Variable Length Markov Chains with Exogenous Covariates (VLMCX) are stochastic models that use Generalized Linear Models to compute transition probabilities, taking into account both the state history and time-dependent exogenous covariates. The beta-context algorithm selects a relevant finite suffix (context) for predicting the next symbol. This algorithm estimates flexible tree-structured models by aggregating irrelevant states in the process history and enables the model to incorporate exogenous covariates over time. This research uses data from multiple sources to extend the beta-context algorithm to incorporate time-dependent and time-invariant exogenous covariates. Within this approach, we have a distinct Markov chain for every data source, allowing for a comprehensive understanding of the process behavior across multiple situations, such as different geographic locations. Despite using data from different sources, we assume that all sources are independent and share identical parameters - we explore contexts within each data source and combine them to compute transition probabilities, deriving a unified tree. This approach eliminates the necessity for spatial-dependent structural considerations within the model. Furthermore, we incorporate modifications in the estimation procedure to address contexts that appear with low frequency. Our motivation was to investigate the impact of previous dengue rates, weather conditions, and socioeconomic factors on subsequent dengue rates across various municipalities in Brazil, providing insights into dengue transmission dynamics.