Nested Compound Random Measures

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new class of nested nonparametric Bayesian models based on Compound Random Measures, offering improved mathematical tractability and computational efficiency for modeling dependent groups, with applications in air pollution analysis.

Contribution

It develops the first Ferguson & Klass algorithm for nested processes using Compound Random Measures, providing theoretical properties, posterior characterization, and demonstrating superior performance over existing models.

Findings

The proposed model is mathematically tractable and flexible.

The Ferguson & Klass algorithm effectively samples from the nested processes.

The model outperforms competitors in simulated and real air pollution data.

Abstract

Nested nonparametric processes are vectors of random probability measures widely used in the Bayesian literature to model the dependence across distinct, though related, groups of observations. These processes allow a two-level clustering, both at the observational and group levels. Several alternatives have been proposed starting from the nested Dirichlet process by Rodr\'iguez et al. (2008). However, most of the available models are neither computationally efficient or mathematically tractable. In the present paper, we aim to introduce a range of nested processes that are mathematically tractable, flexible, and computationally efficient. Our proposal builds upon Compound Random Measures, which are vectors of dependent random measures early introduced by Griffin and Leisen (2017). We provide a complete investigation of theoretical properties of our model. In particular, we prove a general posterior characterization for vectors of Compound Random Measures, which is interesting per se and still not available in the current literature. Based on our theoretical results and the available posterior representation, we develop the first Ferguson & Klass algorithm for nested nonparametric processes. We specialize our general theorems and algorithms in noteworthy examples. We finally test the model's performance on different simulated scenarios, and we exploit the construction to study air pollution in different provinces of an Italian region (Lombardy). We empirically show how nested processes based on Compound Random Measures outperform other Bayesian competitors.