Conformal Structured Prediction

TL;DR

This paper introduces a general conformal prediction framework for structured outputs, enabling uncertainty quantification in complex prediction tasks like text generation and hierarchical classification.

Contribution

It extends conformal prediction to structured outputs, allowing implicit representation of label sets and application to domains with graph-structured labels.

Findings

Effective in hierarchical label prediction

Guarantees high coverage probability

Applicable to complex structured prediction tasks

Abstract

Conformal prediction has recently emerged as a promising strategy for quantifying the uncertainty of a predictive model; these algorithms modify the model to output sets of labels that are guaranteed to contain the true label with high probability. However, existing conformal prediction algorithms have largely targeted classification and regression settings, where the structure of the prediction set has a simple form as a level set of the scoring function. However, for complex structured outputs such as text generation, these prediction sets might include a large number of labels and therefore be hard for users to interpret. In this paper, we propose a general framework for conformal prediction in the structured prediction setting, that modifies existing conformal prediction algorithms to output structured prediction sets that implicitly represent sets of labels. In addition, we demonstrate how our approach can be applied in domains where the prediction sets can be represented as a set of nodes in a directed acyclic graph; for instance, for hierarchical labels such as image classification, a prediction set might be a small subset of coarse labels implicitly representing the prediction set of all their more fine-descendants. We demonstrate how our algorithm can be used to construct prediction sets that satisfy a desired coverage guarantee in several domains.