Suitability Analysis of Ground Motion Prediction Equations for Western and Central Himalayas and Indo-Gangetic Plains

TL;DR

This study evaluates 16 ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) against recorded seismic data in the Himalayas and Indo-Gangetic Plains to identify the most suitable models for seismic hazard assessment in these regions.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive quantitative comparison of GMPEs tailored to the unique seismo-tectonic features of the Himalayas and Indo-Gangetic Plains, aiding in better seismic hazard modeling.

Findings

Different GMPEs are suitable for different seismic periods.

Likelihood and log-likelihood methods effectively evaluate GMPE performance.

Results assist in seismic microzonation and structural design in the regions.

Abstract

Ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) play a key role in seismic hazard assessment (SHA). Considering the seismo-tectonic, geophysical and geotectonic characteristics of a target region, all the GMPEs may not be suitable in predicting the observed ground motion effectively. With a fairly large number of published GMPEs, the selection and ranking of suitable GMPEs for the design of logic trees in SHA for a particular target region has become a necessity of late. This paper presents a detailed quantitative evaluation of performance of 16 GMPEs against recorded ground motion data in two target regions, characterized by distinct seismo-tectonic, geophysical and geotectonical nature. The data set comprises of 465 three-component spectral accelerograms corresponding to 122 earthquake events. The suitability of a GMPE is tested by two widely accepted data-driven statistical methods, namely, likelihood (LH) and log-likelihood (LLH) method. Different suites of GMPEs are shown suitable for different periods of interest. The results will be useful to scientists and engineers for microzonation and estimation of seismic design parameters for the design of earthquake-resistant structures in these regions.