Dependent Infrastructure Service Disruption Mapping (DISruptionMap): A Method to Assess Cascading Service Disruptions in Disaster Scenarios

TL;DR

DISruptionMap is a novel, practical method that combines spatial service models and dependency analysis to assess direct and cascading disruptions of critical infrastructure during disasters, demonstrated through a flood case study.

Contribution

It introduces a fault tree-based approach that reduces data requirements for modeling service dependencies in infrastructure disruption analysis.

Findings

Effective assessment of cascading disruptions demonstrated in Cologne flood case study

Significant reduction in data needed for dependency modeling

Method captures both direct and indirect infrastructure impacts

Abstract

Critical infrastructures provide essential services for our modern society. Large-scale natural hazards, such as floods or storms, can disrupt multiple critical infrastructures at once. In addition, a localized failure of one service can trigger a cascade of failures of other dependent services. This makes it challenging to anticipate and prepare adequately for direct and indirect consequences of such events. Existing methods that are spatially explicit and consider service dependencies currently lack practicality, as they require large amounts of data. To address this gap, we propose a novel method called DISruptionMap which analyzes complex disruptions to critical infrastructure services. The proposed method combines i) spatial service models to assess direct service disruptions with ii) a service dependency model to assess indirect (cascading) service disruptions. A fault tree-based approach is implemented, resulting in a significant decrease in the information required to set up the service dependency model. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method in a case study examining the impact of an extreme flood on health, transport, and power services in Cologne, Germany.