A Hard-Science Approach to Kondratieff's Economic Cycle

TL;DR

This paper investigates the Kondratieff economic cycle using physical variables, especially energy consumption, revealing a roughly 56-year cycle that correlates with various human and natural phenomena, though evidence is tentative.

Contribution

It introduces a scientific approach to studying the Kondratieff cycle by analyzing physical data, providing updated evidence of a long-term cyclical pattern.

Findings

Energy consumption shows a 56-year cycle.

Multiple human and natural phenomena resonate with this cycle.

Recent data suggest the cycle may be diminishing in amplitude and duration.

Abstract

In an effort to evidence the Kondratieff cycle more scientifically than the way economists do, physical variables are studied rather than monetary indicators. Previously published graphs are reproduced and updated here with recent data. A cyclical rather regular variation of energy consumption reveals a 56-year cycle. A dozen human endeavors/phenomena, such as bank failures, homicides, hurricanes, feminism, and sunspot activity are shown to resonate with this cycle. Possible explanations for this phenomenon may have to do with a climatic variation or with the length of time any individual actively influences the environment. There is some evidence that the cycle may be getting shorter in amplitude and duration in recent years. All quantitative confidence levels involved in these observations are poor by scientific standards and permit critics to question the very existence of this phenomenon.