Wavelet analysis and forecast of pollutants in Puebla City, Mexico

TL;DR

This study analyzes atmospheric pollutants in Puebla City from 2016 to 2024, identifying trends and seasonal patterns using wavelet analysis and forecasting PM levels with Prophet, revealing increases in some pollutants and decreases in others.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive approach combining wavelet analysis and Prophet forecasting to study pollutant trends and predict future concentrations in Puebla City.

Findings

Ozone, SO2, and NO2 levels increased over time.

PM10 and PM2.5 levels decreased.

Prophet model's accuracy improves with longer data periods.

Abstract

This article presents a detailed analysis of atmospheric pollutants in Puebla City, Mexico, based on data collected between 2016 and 2024. The research focuses on the daily variation of six major pollutants: ozone (O$_3$), particles smaller than 10 microns (PM10), particles smaller than 2.5 microns (PM2.5), sulfur dioxide (SO$_2$), and nitrogen dioxide (NO$_2$). The Mann-Kendall test, Innovate Trend, and Wavelet Transform Analysis were applied to identify significant trends and seasonal patterns. The results indicate an increase in the levels of O$_3$, SO$_2$, and NO$_2$, while the levels of PM10, and PM2.5 have shown a decrease. The study also employs the Prophet Forecasting Model to predict PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations for the year 2022, demonstrating that the model's accuracy increases as the analysis extends over longer periods.