Close Encounters of the LEO Kind: Spillovers and Resilience in Partially-Automated Traffic Systems

TL;DR

This paper investigates how automated and non-automated satellites interact and respond to large disruptions in low-Earth orbit, using a real-world shock event to analyze system resilience and spillover effects.

Contribution

It introduces an analysis of space traffic disruptions caused by a missile test, highlighting spillovers, heterogeneity, and resilience in partially-automated orbital systems.

Findings

Spillover effects of close encounters with debris are observed.

Impacts vary across different satellite operators.

System resilience to shocks is affected by new orbital debris.

Abstract

Traffic systems are becoming increasingly automated. How will automated objects interact with non-automated objects? How will partially-automated systems handle large disruptions? Low-Earth orbit (LEO) -- filled with thousands of automated and non-automated satellites and many more uncontrollable pieces of debris -- offers a useful laboratory for these questions. I exploit the COSMOS-1408 (C1408) anti-satellite missile test of November 2021 -- a large and exogenous shock to the orbital environment -- to study how an unexpected disruption affects a partially-automated traffic system. I use publicly-available close approach data, network theory, and an econometric analysis of the C1408 test to study the effect of close encounters with new fragments on the configuration of objects in orbit. I document spillover effects of close encounters with C1408 fragments, heterogeneity in impacts across operators, and changes in system-level resilience to new shocks. These results shed light on the nature of partially-automated traffic systems, and provide a basis for new models to anticipate and mitigate space traffic disruptions.