Distribution Grids May Be a Barrier To Residential Electrification

TL;DR

Electrifying all residential heating and vehicles in the US could significantly strain distribution grids, requiring extensive reinforcement costs, but demand-side management offers substantial cost savings.

Contribution

This study quantifies the physical and economic impacts of full residential electrification on US distribution grids, highlighting regional challenges and potential mitigation strategies.

Findings

Space heating drives peak demand increases in cold regions.

Electrification could require up to 600 GW of grid reinforcement.

Demand-side management could reduce reinforcement costs by 75%.

Abstract

Replacing fossil-fueled appliances and vehicles with electric alternatives can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution in many settings. However, residential electrification can also raise electricity demand beyond the safe limits of electrical infrastructure. This can increase the risk of blackouts or require grid reinforcement that is often slow and expensive. Here, we estimate the physical and economic impacts on distribution grids of electrifying all housing and personal vehicles in each county of the lower 48 United States. We find that space heating is the main driver of grid impacts, with the coldest regions seeing demand peaks up to five times higher than today's peaks. Accommodating electrification of all housing and personal vehicles is estimated to require 600 GW of distribution grid reinforcement nationally, at a cost of \$350 to \$790 billion, or \$2,800 to \$6,400 per household (95% confidence intervals). However, demand-side management could eliminate three-quarters of grid reinforcement costs.