How has the war in Ukraine affected Russian sentiments?

TL;DR

This study analyzes how Russia's invasion of Ukraine influenced public sentiments within Russia, revealing increased support for Putin and anti-West attitudes, with regional variations and minimal impact from mobilization and rebellion events.

Contribution

It provides detailed empirical evidence on the shifts in Russian public opinion following the Ukraine invasion using survey data from 2022-2023.

Findings

Increased support for Putin and optimism post-invasion

Anti-West attitudes and lower migration aspirations grew

Regional differences in sentiment changes

Abstract

Using individual-level data from Gallup World Poll and the Levada Center, we provide an in-depth analysis of how Russia's invasion of Ukraine has affected sentiments in the Russian population. Our results show that after the invasion, a larger share of Russians expressed support for President Putin, optimism about the future, anti-West attitudes, and lower migration aspirations. The 2022 mobilization and the 2023 Wagner rebellion had only short-lived and no effects on sentiments, respectively. Regions with low pre-war support for Putin displayed stronger rally effects, higher casualty rates, and increased incomes, suggesting a recruitment strategy that maximizes political support. Taken together, our results suggest strong public support for the war, except among Russians abroad who became more critical of Putin in line with global views.