Stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the time evolution of the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine ecological reserve

TL;DR

This paper proposes stochastic quasi-cycles as a simple explanation for the observed cyclic population dynamics in a New Zealand marine reserve, challenging previous deterministic models.

Contribution

It introduces a maximum likelihood approach to identify stochastic quasi-cycles, providing a simpler alternative to complex deterministic or ad hoc mechanisms.

Findings

Demonstrates the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles in the marine reserve data

Provides a method to detect quasi-cycles without extensive global fitting

Shows that stochastic quasi-cycles can explain observed population oscillations

Abstract

The dataset collected at the Cape Rodney-Okakari Point Marine (CR-OPM) reserve on the North Island of New Zealand is rather unique. It describes the cyclic time evolution of a rocky intertidal community, with the relative abundances of the various coastal species that have been meticulously monitored for more than 20 years. Past theoretical studies, anchored on a deterministic description, required invoking ad hoc mechanisms to reproduce the observed dynamical paths. Following a maximum likelihood approach to interpolate individual stochastic trajectories, we here propose quasi-cycles as an alternative and simpler mechanism to explain the oscillations observed in the population numbers of the ecosystem. From a general standpoint, we also show that it is possible to return conclusive evidence on the existence of stochastic quasi-cycles, without resorting to global fitting strategies which necessitate handling a large collection of independent replicas of the dynamics, a possibility that is often precluded in real life applications.