Incorporation of NAMs dynamic reservoir model into Cox rate-and-state model for monitoring earthquakes in the Groningen gas field

TL;DR

This paper integrates NAM's dynamic reservoir model with a Cox rate-and-state model to improve earthquake monitoring in Groningen, using statistical and geomechanical methods to predict induced seismicity from pore pressure changes.

Contribution

It introduces a novel combination of reservoir modeling and seismic rate prediction to better understand and forecast induced earthquakes in gas fields.

Findings

Pressure changes significantly influence seismic activity.

The integrated model improves earthquake forecasting accuracy.

Results aid in seismic risk mitigation strategies.

Abstract

Induced seismicity due to fluid extraction or injection has become a critical issue in regions with extensive hydrocarbon production, such as the Groningen gas field in the Netherlands. This study examines the relationship between pore pressure changes from natural gas extraction and the resulting induced earthquakes in Groningen. We employ a Cox process-based rate-state model, integrating pore pressure data from NAM's dynamic reservoir model. By combining geomechanical and statistical approaches, we aim to predict future seismic events and assess the accuracy of our model. Our methodology uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to estimate model parameters and forecast earthquake occurrences. The results highlight the significant impact of pressure changes on seismic activity, providing valuable insights for mitigating seismic risks in gas-producing regions.