Research on Predicting Public Opinion Event Heat Levels Based on Large Language Models

TL;DR

This study explores using large language models, especially GPT-4o, to predict the heat levels of public opinion events based on Chinese social media data, highlighting current accuracy limitations and future potential.

Contribution

It introduces a novel method leveraging large language models for public opinion event heat level prediction and evaluates their performance on a large Chinese dataset.

Findings

GPT-4o and DeepseekV2 achieved around 41% accuracy in predicting heat levels.

Prediction accuracy is higher for low-heat events, reaching over 70%.

Accuracy decreases as heat level increases, indicating data imbalance issues.

Abstract

In recent years, with the rapid development of large language models, serval models such as GPT-4o have demonstrated extraordinary capabilities, surpassing human performance in various language tasks. As a result, many researchers have begun exploring their potential applications in the field of public opinion analysis. This study proposes a novel large-language-models-based method for public opinion event heat level prediction. First, we preprocessed and classified 62,836 Chinese hot event data collected between July 2022 and December 2023. Then, based on each event's online dissemination heat index, we used the MiniBatchKMeans algorithm to automatically cluster the events and categorize them into four heat levels (ranging from low heat to very high heat). Next, we randomly selected 250 events from each heat level, totalling 1,000 events, to build the evaluation dataset. During the evaluation process, we employed various large language models to assess their accuracy in predicting event heat levels in two scenarios: without reference cases and with similar case references. The results showed that GPT-4o and DeepseekV2 performed the best in the latter case, achieving prediction accuracies of 41.4% and 41.5%, respectively. Although the overall prediction accuracy remains relatively low, it is worth noting that for low-heat (Level 1) events, the prediction accuracies of these two models reached 73.6% and 70.4%, respectively. Additionally, the prediction accuracy showed a downward trend from Level 1 to Level 4, which correlates with the uneven distribution of data across the heat levels in the actual dataset. This suggests that with the more robust dataset, public opinion event heat level prediction based on large language models will have significant research potential for the future.