Constraining the origin of the nanohertz gravitational-wave background by pulsar timing array observations of both the background and individual supermassive binary black holes

TL;DR

This study uses pulsar timing array data and a binary black hole population model to constrain the origin of the nanohertz gravitational-wave background, predicting detection probabilities of individual sources and implications for black hole-galaxy relations.

Contribution

It provides the first combined analysis of GWB and individual BBH detections to constrain their astrophysical origin and evolution.

Findings

High detection probability (>85%) of individual BBHs within 3.4 years of observation.

Detection likelihood increases to over 95% with 5+ years of data.

Non-detection can strongly limit the BBH contribution to the GWB.

Abstract

The gravitational waves (GWs) from supermassive binary black holes (BBHs) are long sought by pulsar timing array experiments (PTAs), in the forms of both a stochastic GW background (GWB) and individual sources. The evidence for a GWB was reported recently by several PTAs with origins to be determined. Here we use a BBH population synthesis model to investigate the detection probability of individual BBHs by the Chinese PTA (CPTA) and the constraint on the GWB origin that may be obtained by PTA observations of both GWB and individual BBHs. If the detected GWB signal is entirely due to BBHs, a significantly positive redshift evolution ($\propto(1+z)^{2.07}$) of the mass scaling relation between supermassive black holes and their host galaxies is required. In this case, we find that the detection probability of individual BBHs is $\sim85\%$ or 64% if using a period of 3.4-year CPTA observation data, with an expectation of $\sim1.9$ or 1.0 BBHs detectable with a signal-to-noise ratio $\geq3$ or $5$, and it is expected to increase to $>95\%$ if extending the observation period to $5$ years or longer. Even if the contribution from BBHs to the GWB power signal is as small as $\sim10\%$, a positive detection of individual BBHs can still be expected within an observation period of $\sim10$ years. A non-detection of individual BBHs within several years from now jointly with the detected GWB signal can put a strong constraint on the upper limit of the BBH contribution to the GWB signal and help identify/falsify a cosmological origin.