Triangulating on Possible Futures: Conducting User Studies on Several Futures Instead of Only One

TL;DR

This paper proposes a triangulation approach in user studies to explore multiple plausible futures simultaneously, enhancing the generalizability and robustness of findings in HCI research on AI-augmented knowledge work.

Contribution

It introduces a method for studying several futures at once to improve the plausibility and applicability of HCI research insights.

Findings

Some findings were consistent across both futures.

Other findings were specific to individual futures.

Triangulation improved plausibility and insight depth.

Abstract

Plausible findings about futures are inherently difficult to obtain as they require critical, well-informed speculations backed with data. HCI scholars tackle this challenge via user studies wherein futuristic prototypes and other props concretise possible futures for participants. By observing participants' actions, researchers then can 'time travel' to see that future as reality, in action. However, such studies may yield particularised findings, inherent to study's intricacies, and lack broader plausibility. This paper suggests that triangulation of possible futures may help researchers disentangle particularities from more generalisable findings. We explored this approach by conducting a study on two alternative futures of AI-augmented knowledge work. Some findings emerged in both futures while others were particular to only one or the other. This approach enabled cross-checking of plausibility and simultaneously afforded deeper insight. The paper discusses how triangulating possible futures renders HCI studies more future-proof and provides means for reflective anticipation of possible futures.