Detailed Analysis of Local Climate at the CTAO-North Site on La Palma from 20 Years of MAGIC Weather Station Data

TL;DR

This study analyzes 20 years of weather data at the CTAO-North site on La Palma, revealing climate trends, weather extremes, and the impact of climate change on local conditions relevant for astronomical observations.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive long-term climate analysis using advanced statistical methods, including trend detection and multifractal analysis, for the CTAO-North site.

Findings

Temperature increased by 0.55°C per decade.

Relative humidity increased by 4% per decade.

Weather-related downtime is approximately 19%.

Abstract

The Observatorio del Roque de los Muchachos will host the northern site of the Cherenkov Telescope Array Observatory (CTAO), in an area about 200 m below the mountain rim, where the optical telescopes are located. The site currently hosts the MAGIC Telescopes, which have gathered a unique series of 20 years of weather data. We use advanced profile likelihood methods to determine seasonal cycles, the occurrence of weather extremes, weather downtime, and long-term trends correctly taking into account data gaps. The fractality of the weather data is investigated by means of multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis. The data are published according to the Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable (FAIR) principles. We find that the behaviour of wind and relative humidity show significant differences compared to the mountain rim. We observe an increase in temperature of $0.55\pm0.07\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm0.07\mathrm{(syst.)}^\circ C$/decade, the diurnal temperature range of $0.13\pm0.04\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm0.02\mathrm{(syst.)}^\circ C$/decade (accompanied by an increase of seasonal oscillation amplitude of $\Delta C_m=0.29\pm0.10\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm0.04\mathrm{(syst.)}^\circ C$/decade) and relative humidity of $4.0\pm0.4\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm1.1\mathrm{(syst.)}$%/decade, and a decrease in trade wind speeds of $0.85\pm0.12\mathrm{(stat.)}\pm0.07\mathrm{(syst.)}$(km/h)/decade. The occurrence of extreme weather, such as tropical storms and long rains, remains constant over time. We find a significant correlation of temperature with the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and multifractal behaviour of the data. The site shows a weather-related downtime of 18.5%-20.5%, depending on the wind gust limits employed. No hints are found of a degradation of weather downtime under the assumption of a linear evolution of environmental parameters over time.