Enhancing Multivariate Time Series-based Solar Flare Prediction with Multifaceted Preprocessing and Contrastive Learning

TL;DR

This paper improves solar flare prediction accuracy by combining advanced data preprocessing techniques with a novel contrastive learning-based classifier, demonstrating superior performance over existing methods.

Contribution

It introduces a comprehensive preprocessing pipeline and a new contrastive learning classifier, ContReg, specifically designed for multivariate time series solar flare prediction.

Findings

Preprocessing steps significantly improve prediction accuracy.

ContReg outperforms existing deep learning and machine learning models.

Achieves state-of-the-art True Skill Statistic scores.

Abstract

Accurate solar flare prediction is crucial due to the significant risks that intense solar flares pose to astronauts, space equipment, and satellite communication systems. Our research enhances solar flare prediction by utilizing advanced data preprocessing and classification methods on a multivariate time series-based dataset of photospheric magnetic field parameters. First, our study employs a novel preprocessing pipeline that includes missing value imputation, normalization, balanced sampling, near decision boundary sample removal, and feature selection to significantly boost prediction accuracy. Second, we integrate contrastive learning with a GRU regression model to develop a novel classifier, termed ContReg, which employs dual learning methodologies, thereby further enhancing prediction performance. To validate the effectiveness of our preprocessing pipeline, we compare and demonstrate the performance gain of each step, and to demonstrate the efficacy of the ContReg classifier, we compare its performance to that of sequence-based deep learning architectures, machine learning models, and findings from previous studies. Our results illustrate exceptional True Skill Statistic (TSS) scores, surpassing previous methods and highlighting the critical role of precise data preprocessing and classifier development in time series-based solar flare prediction.