Comparaci\'on de las variables f\'isicas que influyen en la r\'apida intensificaci\'on de los ciclones tropicales del Oc\'eano Pac\'ifico nororiental durante el periodo 1970-2018

TL;DR

This study investigates the physical factors influencing rapid intensification of tropical cyclones in the northeastern Pacific Ocean, focusing on sea surface temperature, mixing layer depth, and wind shear, to improve forecasting models.

Contribution

It identifies threshold values of SST and MLD that favor rapid intensification, highlighting the dominance of thermal factors over wind shear in this process.

Findings

SST anomalies of +7.6% are associated with RI.

MLD anomalies of +57% are linked to RI.

Wind shear was not significantly low during RI.

Abstract

The study of the rapid intensification process of Tropical Cyclones (TCs) is a current, yet lacking research topic in Mexico, where thermal and dynamic factors at the microscale and mesoscale fundamentally intervene. Due to the little improvement in the TC intensity, forecasting models and the importance of understanding and predicting their evolution, an investigation was under-taken of the factors that influence the process of rapid intensification, and in general, the intensi-fication of TCs in the Mexican Pacific Ocean, specifically in the western zone that includes states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima and north of Michoac\'an. The parameters studied were, sea surface temperature (SST), mixing layer depth (MLD), as well as, wind shear (WS). Through a selection process of TCs that met the definition of Rapid In-tensification (RI), the aforementioned parameters were processed and analyzed, which allowed identification of the threshold values that favor the rapid intensification process. The anomalies of + 7,6 % in SST and + 57 % in MLD stand out. Although the wind shear values were not low, a dominance in the thermal factors SST and MLD was observed during the RI process.